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The Future of American Cities: Part 1

01 Jun 2010, by Tim Keller

During roughly twenty years from 1970 to 1990, American cities went into sharp decline. The migration of African-Americans from the south to northern cities resulted in white flight and the creation of inner city ghettoes. In the late '70s and early '80s there were protracted recessions that diminished tax revenues and drove some cities into virtual or actual bankruptcy. Meanwhile, urban planning in the mid-20th century privileged the automobile and big stores and stadiums and lots of parking and no residents and massive housing projects for the poor. All of this led to downtowns that were like ghost-towns after dark, and neighborhoods that were riddled with crime. The middle class fled along with many jobs, leaving the poor neighborhoods even poorer. Cities were polarized into poor non-white centers and affluent white suburbs.

However, for the last twenty years, since 1990, American cities have experienced an amazing renaissance. During this time many cities' population declines have reversed or at least slowed. People began moving back into cities in droves, and downtown/center cities began to regenerate at their cores. Why? First, during this time the U.S. experienced remarkable economic growth and what now is being called a series of economic "bubbles." This created a great deal of new wealth and new jobs. Second, crime went down in cities, probably for reasons both liberals and conservatives talked about (job creation, tougher law enforcement). Third, the cultural mood became what we now call "post-modern," that is a culture which enjoys eclecticism, a mixture of the old and new, asymmetry, messiness and unmanageability, cultural diversity, and the artistic. All of these are features of city-life rather than the suburbs, which are much more controlled and homogeneous. Fourth, and perhaps most important of all, changes in immigration law in 1965 (the Hart-Celler Act) opened the door to an influx from non-European nations. Between 1965 and 1970 U.S. immigration doubled and then from 1970 to 1990 it doubled again. Most of this wave of immigrants went into America's cities, renewing and diversifying many neighborhoods. It also completely changed the older, gridlocked, binary black-white dynamic of urban politics to a far more complex, multi-polar situation of many ethnicities and nationalities.

As a result many American cities began to surge. New professional-class neighborhoods developed along with working class and poor ones. Sometimes the gentrification was more destructive and disruptive to the social fabric, while other times it was more healthy. The main new residents in this upsurge included empty-nest Boomers returning to cities, young professionals seeking cities to live and work in, and a wave of immigrants in inner city neighborhoods and inner suburbs that produced second-generation college graduates who moved in to the center city to live and work. These groups joined the communities of homosexuals and artists who have always chosen urban communities to live in.

Our church was founded at the very beginning of this renaissance, in 1989. At that time, moving into the center city to begin a church seemed to be a fool's errand. The year we moved to New York City, a survey came out indicating that most of the residents of NYC would move away if they could. Those were bad times! Yet, within a few years of our founding, I began to get calls from churches, denominations, and leaders who had begun to notice the renaissance in nearby cities. They realized that it was time to plant churches to reach all of these new residential communities.

But twenty years later, we have reached the end of an era. The Great Recession is upon us, and even if it has officially ended - or has it? - we expect a protracted time of high unemployment and fitful, sluggish economic growth. This same kind of economic environment in the 70s and 80s was destructive for cities. The question for us now is, what lies ahead for American cities?

Comments

bkubinec
06/02/2010
This is certainly an interesting essay, but I think the economic analysis could be a bit misguided. Cities actually tend to have lower unemployment because of the positive effects of agglomeration (re: Paul Krugman)--the large pools of labor make it more likely that businesses will specialize there. Unemployment rates are highest in this recession in rural areas, although it is true that they are also higher among low-skilled workers. So the better question is how the recession will impact workers without high levels of education and/or technical training, not whether or not they rural or urban per se.

caughtnottaught
06/05/2010
It's a tricky thing to make predictions, especially about the future. I'm a historian, and I've noticed that though the past doesn't repeat itself, it does rhyme. It's probably important that there are many major differences in infrastructure, kinds of business, communication, networks of sociability, social attitudes, healthcare provisions, educational norms, and so forth. Add to these the numerous minor differences, and post-coldwar geopolitical global repositioning and it's anyone's guess whether continuity or change will be the major pattern. Hindsight isn't 20/20. Looking forward to part 2.

fivedunedain
06/08/2010
Simple, and pretty safe predictions: (1) Cities with middling-healthy economies will continue to become more expensive places to live. (2) Crime and deep poverty will become increasingly rural/exurban/outer suburban problems, and decreasingly center-city ones. (3) Taxation and public service policies that have favored non-urban communities will change with "punctuated equilibrium" to favor cities. There are demographic, economic, and environmental forces pushing in all of these directions. That said, cities will not (all) become the streetcar-laced walking paradises that some trumpet. Gentrification will present massive problems for the church. Christians will be into cities like never before. There will be a backlash in favor of rural ministry (for the first time in generations). Social justice will have to be better defined, in and out of cities, than it generally is (even by Christians). Fewer "service projects," more friendships.

EricSwanson
06/08/2010
I think Tim is just getting started. Yes people are moving back into the cities in the US but also globally, as of May 2007, more people live in cities than in rural areas of the world. Strategies that have worked in village have faied in urban areas. This is the challeng for the church. As a friend of mine puts it, "Cities are this generation's 10-40 window." Cities are not only the places of diverse groups of people but also as I assume Keller will argue, places of cultural influence.